Of Jermaine O’Neal and Boris Diaw, Some Early Trade Thoughts

 

 

 

Well for a while there it was pretty quiet.

 

 

Some years leading up to the draft, it seems like there’s a rumour a day concerning each team, especially in terms of draft-day trades.

 

 

This year though it was pretty quiet up until late last week.

 

 

Then suddenly Dwyane Wade was headed back to Chicago, Carmello Anthony was headed to Detroit, and TJ Ford was off to Phoenix in exchange for Boris Diaw.

 

 

While yes, at this point all of these and many more are stuck in the rumours and speculation stage, from a Raptors’ fans perspective, it’s worth taking a closer look at the Diaw idea…not to mention the latest rumour which popped up yesterday morning; Jermaine O’Neal to Toronto for TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and the 17^th pick.

 

 

Reports now are saying that trade talks between Indiana and Toronto have broken down but it’s probably still worth taking a closer look at each deal…starting with Ford for Diaw.

 

 

 

For starters, this deal makes a lot of sense for both teams.  Diaw is being under-used on Phoenix, no longer fits with the Suns’ style, and has a contract that could be described as slightly on the “generous” side.

 

 

For the Raptors, Ford needs to go, so getting anything in return, let alone a possible option to start at the 3, is a good deal.

 

 

But there are some major issues with such a transaction if you dig deeper.

 

 

First and foremost, how does Ford take to coming off the bench again, even if it is for a possible championship contending team and in a large role behind the aging Steve Nash?

 

 

Second, is Boris Diaw REALLY the answer at the 3 for the Raps?  He’s not exactly the slashing, defensive-minded small forward that Toronto fans covet.

 

 

More than anything, this would be a case of two teams looking to exchange pieces that don’t fit, hoping that in their new environments, they suddenly become more palatable.  And all of that’s fine, but taking on Diaw means an additional year of his $9 Million contract as TJ has a year less on his deal. 
So if Boris is a bust in Raptorland, that means fans have an additional year to watch him potentially toil on the bench.

 

 

The other thing that many people are forgetting is the reluctance the Suns have had to even SPEAK to the Raptors let alone make trades. 
Let’s not forget that Mike D’Antoni was forbidden to have any discussions with Toronto when he was looking elsewhere to coach.  So would the Suns swallow their pride and negotiate with the Executive of the Year that they let get away?  Hard to say at this point.

 

 

That’s why the Jermaine O’Neal idea is even more interesting.

 

 

First of all, regardless of the draft pick being included, Toronto would need to add some pieces to the mix to make the salaries match up.  O’Neal is due over $21 Million next season meaning the Raptors would need to get within $100,000 of that under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement for the trade to go through.  Ford and Rasho alone would only take the Raps to about $18 Million leaving them a couple Mill short.  Perhaps someone like Kris Humphries will be tossed in or a combination of smaller salaries like Joey Graham and Maceo Baston.  (In fact, how funny would it be if those two went considering that Baston already played for the Pacers and had a terrible experience, and Joey’s brother Stephen is on the squad?)  That would clear up two of BC’s warts for sure however as Graham and Baston have done nothing worthwhile and could easily be replaced with cheaper options via Summer League or Free Agency.  (Perhaps that’s something to consider based on the recent Free Agent Camp?)

 

 

Now, let’s keep going and assume the salaries do match up.  Does the trade make basketball sense?

 

 

From a Pacers’ angle it makes a ton of sense.  Coach O’Brien loves to play an up-tempo game and J.O. was simply slowing things down.  In fact, the Pacers probably were a more effective and deadly squad last year with O’Neal out of the lineup.  Also, Jamaal Tinsley has more than worn out his welcome and the quick strike ability of Ford would be a great fit in Indiana’s new run-and-gun system. 

 

 

Going past Ford, taking on Rasho’s contract makes sense as it would give the Pacers a lot of cap room to work with as early as next summer.  I don’t think Larry Bird’s fooling himself, this team is in rebuilding mode and with some solid pieces like Ford, Granger, Dunleavy Jr. and a few draft picks this year, they’re off to a good start.  And by dealing O’Neal’s salary and only taking on Ford and a few others, the Pacers will have at least $10 Million in free agent money to play with to speed up the rebuilding process once Nesterovic’s contract is up.

 

 

And what about the Raps?

 

 

Well if this year proved anything it’s that having a bench (and 3/5’s of your starting line-up) filled with sixth and seventh quality men, doesn’t beat star power.  Toronto simply didn’t have the talent to compete with the Bostons and Detroits of the league and this move would immediately pair two of the most dominant big men in the game when healthy.

 

 

Aaaah the caveat…”when healthy.”

 

That’s the real sticking point isn’t it for us Raptor fans?

 

 

If JO wasn’t owed over $40 Million the next two seasons we could deal with risking getting re-injured.  However if Rasho goes, and O’Neal gets badly hurt, that leaves a huge hole in the middle besides Chris Bosh.

 

 

Howland and I discussed this last night and agreed that if you make this deal, you do it realizing that you’re one serious O’Neal injury away from being right back in the lottery.

 

 

So if we were in BC’s shoes and the offer came through, would we do still pull the trigger?

 

 

The answer is a resounding yes and here’s why.

 

 

First of all, Bosh needs help, especially in terms of carrying the scoring load.  He’s never been the defensive stopper in the middle that the team needs and with O’Neal on board, he won’t have to be.  Jermaine is a better rebounder and shot blocker and has a better back to the basket game than Bosh.  This means that the two could be a killer 1-2 punch on the blocks, one playing the high post and the other the low.

 

 

This would also impact the rest of the club as now, Jason Kapono could take over at the 3 as his defensive deficiencies would be somewhat masked by the gruesome twosome waiting in the paint for slashing wings.  And on offense, teams would be keyed in on the two bigs allowing Kapono and Anthony Parker, and Jose Calderon for that matter, lots of room to bomb away.  Jamario Moon would be brought in off the bench, which he’s better suited for, thus giving him the opportunity to continue to develop his offense game, instead of being forced into a scoring role in the starting line-up.

 

 

Oh, and what about Il Mago?  Well this trade, and the mere fact that it’s being floated around, better serve as a wake-up call to “the Magician.”  It seems like we’re starting to understand the level of disappointment Bryan Colangelo has in his top pick and if Bargs doesn’t at least get his scoring back to where it was in year one, forget sticking with the team, he’ll be lucky to stick in the league!

 

 

For the record I haven’t given up on Andrea yet but let’s just say that my past week in the inner sanctum of Raptors’ world did little to inject much optimism in his future development.  I heard whispers of poor work ethic, inability to adjust to instruction (he’s apparently quite stubborn and set in his ways) and overall mental frailty.  I’m not sure what this says about the vaunted “Calipre” test but we’ll get into this a bit more in our interview with DraftExpress.com’s Jonathan Givony.

 

 

So with JO on board, Toronto would be free to bring him off the bench to back up any of the front-court positions and the hope would be that down the road, Toronto could even play Andrea at the 3 giving them an enormous size advantage over most teams.  Perhaps BC is hoping that with a legit second scoring option and big man on the roster, the reduced pressure on Bargnani will help him get back on track.  Or perhaps BC has realized that Andrea is simply not the player he thought he was taking with the first overall pick in 2006.  From a fans’ standpoint, we’re hoping it’s not the latter…

 

 

Now there is of course some question as to whether or not O’Neal would be ok with playing the 5 as like Bosh, he’s always seen himself purely as a 4.  My response to this is that I hope he took a good look at the Celtics this year.  A little sacrifice on issues like this can go a long way and frankly I think that Bosh and O’Neal will be happy enough to be playing together that they’ll care less about who is technically the “5” each night.

 

 

Of course all of this sounds nice and merry but what if O’Neal gets hurt?  I mean, we’re talking about a player who has failed to play 70 games since the 2003-2004 season!

 

 

From our perspective here, the worst case scenario is that he suffers another huge injury and plays little to no games over those final two years, thus leaving Toronto devoid of a major talent and being tied-up salary-wise for an extra year.  (Rasho’s contract of course expires at the end of this coming season.)  This is where BC and his crew earn their keep of course, simply trying to forecast this guy’s health.  But even if this worst case scenario does occur, the bottom line is that TJ needs to go and if you can get anything in return (I mean many of us were willing to settle for Malik Rose at one point) then I think you do it.

 

 

For me the real issue I have with a potential trade like this isn’t so much the “what if O’Neal never plays,” but the “who else can you afford to add to the team?” question.  After all, let’s say Toronto brought in Jermaine, that would likely mean that after re-signing Jose, the Raps would have approximately $44 Million tied up in three players; Bosh, O’Neal and Calderon.  That’s a good chunk of the team’s salary cap and if Toronto needs to send more than one player to Indiana to make such a deal work, all of a sudden we’re talking about the team potentially having to replace six or seven players next year.

 

 

-Garbs is gone

-Martin was waived last year

-There’s no guarantee Delfino will be back

-Brezec is done

 

And via this trade now,

 

-Ford, Rasho and at least one other, perhaps two other players need to go to make the Indiana trade work financially.

 

 

Considering that O’Neal is the only player coming back to Toronto in the currently rumoured deal, that means replacing six, possibly seven players.

 

 

That’s why if a trade like this goes down, I’m hoping that BC can either convince Indiana to let Toronto keep the 17^th pick, or the Raptors somehow find a way to grab another one later in the first or early second round.  Besides the mid-level exception, Toronto after a deal like this, is simply not going to have the cap space to fill out the roster.  Therefore cheap talent like draft picks, and possibly players from the free agent camp, may be critical to completing the squad.

 

 

So whether or not the talks between Indiana and Toronto have really broken down, you can see that in any trade scenario, Bryan Colangelo is going to have to decide whether or not to jeopardize his original 3 year plan by taking on more salary.  He’s also going to have to suddenly address the back-up point guard situation (who knows how ready Roko is) and if a “big” like JO is the eventual trade target, does that afford him some time in terms of upgrading the 3 spot? 

 

 

At present you have to think that a frontcourt of a healthy Bosh and O’Neal would be a serious problem for teams in the East, especially surrounded by dead-eye gunners like Kapono, Parker and Calderon.  Add in some development from Bargnani, another step by Jamario Moon, and some luck via the draft and free agency and suddenly I think we’re talking about a team that could really give other clubs some problems in the playoffs.

 

 

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, over the next three days I’m sure that BC will have a lot of other offers to mull through and he’ll be closely scrutinizing each scenario.

 

 

The important thing here regardless of which trades do or do not occur, is that it’s quite evident BC is seriously looking at upgrading this club’s talent, something that bodes well for a Raptor club next year facing ever-improving divisional and conference rivals.

 

 

FRANCHISE

 

 

PS – A couple quick notes.  First off, we’ll be having our annual NBA draft party here in Toronto as usual at Harbour Sports Grille, located at 10 Yonge Street.  Second, we still don’t have our audio issues resolved concerning our pre-draft and free agent camp workouts but will post a note as soon as things are fixed.

 

 

 

Free Agent Camp Recap - June 22nd

Four days until the NBA Draft.

And that’s if you count Thursday as a day before, instead of the day of.

Yes, for us here at the HQ, we can feel the excitement start to build as Toronto takes its first off-season steps towards addressing some of the numerous holes in its line-up.

And believe us, after spending the past week or so talking to people at the Air Canada Center and taking in workouts, we realized just how far the Raptors still have to go.

So first off, is there any immediate help on the way from this year’s free agent camp? Or better yet, who could be the next Jamario Moon?

Unfortunately from what we saw and the people we spoke with, there are no Jamarios here this year.

However that doesn’t mean that there weren’t some standout performances. After talking with the Raptors’ Director of Player Personnel Jim Kelly and several others, and having seen a nice chunk of the action ourselves, here are our top 5 from the camp.

1. Rod Benson. Benson was the name that came up the most in discussions about “stand-outs.” He’s a great rebounder, has a knack for the intangibles of the game, and as Jim Kelly mentioned in the post-workout scrum with us, his mid-range game was a lot better than advertised. So do the Raps have a Vegas spot saved for him? Unfortunately not as the Phoenix Suns have already scooped him up. Benson had a great interview with us after the camp and conveyed that if he didn’t crack an NBA roster this year, he already had some great opportunities lined up overseas. To hear the complete interview with Rod, click here.

2. Tamar Slay. Slay wasn’t the lights out shooter today that he was yesterday but still did some nice things on the court. Kelly informed us that he played more of a facilitator role today than that of a scorer but by all accounts he seemed to have a strong camp. It seems that Slay has some options next year as well so there’s no guarantee he’ll be in Vegas with Toronto either.

3. Hassan Adams. We were informed that Adams was the standout player in today’s action and it’s unfortunate that he wasn’t present for the entire camp. Adams of course was a second round pick by the New Jersey Nets just two years ago and at one point had taken Eddie House’s spot on their roster. However injuries put him on the shelf and he wasn’t able to stick in Jersey. He’s undersized, and not the gunner that House is, but like Eddie, he could be a nice sparkplug off the bench for a team. He’s an excellent slasher and athlete as well despite his size. Of all the players in camp, Adams is the player I most expect to see on another team’s training camp roster. We didn’t get a chance to chat with him but hopefully he’ll be on the Vegas roster for the Dinos.

4. John Lucas Jr./Pooh Jeter. We put these two together as neither really stood out more than the other and both possess traits that could be useful for Toronto.

Jeter as usual was the voice of the camp. He’s constantly encouraging the troops, calling out plays and urging his teammates to communicate on D. He’s not a lights out shooter, and is probably 5-8 without shoes, but is a legit pass-first point guard who can direct a team. He’s also quite quick, and a real asset in the locker room.

Lucas is a better shooter than Jeter, and also quite fast end to end, but not quite the floor general. He too is probably about 5-8 and did a solid job all camp orchestrating his squad’s offence.

With the TJ Ford trade talk heating up by the day, it’s obvious that the Raptors at some point will need some help behind Jose Calderon. Neither of these players are probably suited as number 2 options…but as third-stringers who can fill in when needed and give 110 per cent, Toronto could do much worse. I expect to see both in Vegas, hopefully with the Raptors’ squad.

5. Darryl Watkins. Watkins was a player we didn’t get to touch on much because like some of the others at this camp, he was a late show. However he impressed with his play in the paint when he did get on the court and is simply a beast of a presence down low. At 6-10 and about 240 pounds, he can create space and actually has some nice offensive moves for a player his size. The knock on Watkins at Syracuse was that he was an underachiever considering his considerable size and build. However in this camp he was attacking the rim with gusto and moving well without the ball. In many ways Watkins reminds me of the Celtics’ Kendrick Perkins. Both had the size to move players around in the paint but neither honed into that skill-set for a few years. However Watkins already has a better offensive game and it would be nice to see him get a Summer League invite from Toronto.

So based on what we saw the past few days, we don’t foresee the second-coming of Jamario Moon. But maybe that’s not such a bad thing as really, Toronto needs to fill out a few spots at the end of the bench, not find more quasi-starters.

One player who didn’t show up until today, and who I was hoping would impress, was former Duke and Rutgers guard Dahntay Jones. Jones is an athletic marvel and cut like a knife but seems to still be struggling to find a role in the league. This is something he conveyed to us in an interview after the camp concluded and he’s another player I hope Toronto gets a second look at in summer league. Summer league of course is right around the corner as well with the Vegas run expected to kick off July 11th. No word yet on who will be getting invites from the Raptors but at the least this camp gives Bryan Colangelo and his staff a number of players to consider.

Moving on from the Free Agent Camp, as we reported here yesterday, it sounds like the workouts aren’t over yet for Toronto. In fact, the Raptors are reportedly bringing back JJ Hickson tomorrow in an interesting decision, and are possibly even going to run a last-ditch workout now on Wednesday before the draft.

The Hickson recall has Howland and I more sure than ever that a big-man is going to be the choice at 17. Brandon Rush, a player who is on our wish list, seems more and more likely to be gone before the Raptors pick. In addition, after talking with Jonathan Givony of Draftexpress today (we’ll be posting our annual “15 Questions” with him on Tuesday), it sounds like another HQ fave Alexis Ajinca could be gone too. That leaves the likes of Speights, Lopez, Greene, Hibbert, CDR and Koufos in Toronto’s area.

I don’t think Toronto has Greene, Speights or CDR in their list of final options presently and I think Koufos, while talented, is too similar to Bargnani.

So that leaves Lopez and Hibbert.

That’s why another look at JJ Hickson, makes a good deal of sense. Hickson has more upside than either so right now Bryan Colangelo and co. may be essentially saying:

“well, we don’t love Lopez or Hibbert, but at 17, at least they could give us some heady contribution. But maybe we take another look at that Hickson kid…he could be really good down the road.”

And so once again it comes down to “do you draft on talent or on need?”

Right now it looks like the Raptors are still trying to decide.

As a final note, we’ve had some technical issues with the file format of the interviews we’ve recently recorded for RaptorsDraftHQ.com. We’ll hopefully have these fixed later tonight however and at that point we’ll post the audio files of Sunday’s chats with Rod Benson, Dahntay Jones and Jim Kelly.

FRANCHISE

 

Workout Recap - June 21st

It was another interesting day at the ACC as in addition to the ongoing Free Agent Camp, the Raptors had prospect Marresse Speights in for a look. Contrary to my article yesterday however he was not only accompanied by Will Daniels as four others joined the fray. Most need no breakdown as they were local products or courtesy calls however Illinois’ big man Shaun Pruitt drew my interest.

Pruitt was a player I saw a good deal of last year on TV thanks to Rogers’ pro Big Ten and Big East coverage. He’s a physical presence (even more so in person!) who put up over 12 points and 7 boards a game for the Illini. I was mentioning yesterday that I had hoped the Raptors would have brought in another big to bang with Speights and turns out I got my wish. While we weren’t privy to the “in-game” portion of the workouts, I’m assuming that Pruitt gave Speights all he could handle down low, especially since Pruitt seems in much better shape than he ever was at Illinois.

In fact, Pruitt looked quicker in the lateral quickness drills than Speights, and seemed to post a better vertical leap; both in standstill and running jump situations. Speights in general hardly seemed enamored with the workout process and was a man of few words during our interview with him. Click the following link to listen to the interview using Windows Media Player. marreese-speights-scrum-pre-draft-08

I think the biggest point of interest from the interview for me was his response to my question concerning which NBA players he modeled his game after.

His response? Rasheed Wallace.

I’m not sure that’s exactly what the Raptors’ brass are looking for from pick 17, a player who would rather shoot perimeter shots than use his bulk and score inside. Interestingly, from some of the other workout reviews of Speights that I’ve read, the biggest critique was indeed his tendency to settle for perimeter shots, some of which were well beyond his range.

So for now, I’m keeping Speights out of our “Final 5” here at the HQ in terms of draft options at 17. I feel that a number of other big simply seem to have more to offer Toronto in terms of immediate help in critical areas.

The other interesting nugget via Jim Kelly, (click the following link to listen to his chat with the media yesterday jim-kelly-scrum-day-ii-of-free-agent-camp-08) was that Toronto is not done the workout process. It sounds like on Monday the Raptors will be holding one final session at the ACC which may involve some recalls. I’m hoping of course that the recalls include players like CDR, Rush, Ajinca and Lopez. Perhaps though it will be a last ditch effort to bring in some players like JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan, who the Raptors haven’t gotten a look at up close.

Then on Tuesday, it sounds like the Raptors will be traveling somewhere to take in one final workout before Thursday’s draft. We’ll get all the details once we know more.

Moving onto the free agent camp, yesterday gave us a chance to see some actual live action between the auditionees. The Raptors divided the players into two teams and for the last 20-25 minutes of Saturday’s camp, we were privy to the scrimmages.

Here was the roster for the two teams:

Black Team

Dontaye Draper
Delonte Holland
James White
Keith Langford
Deji Akindele
Courtney Sims
Rod Benson
Pooh Jeter

White Team

John Lucas Jr.
Tamar Slay
Brian Harper
Dijon Thompson
Jan Jagla
Coleman Collins
Sharrod Ford
Rashad Bell
Of note, the original list of players who were expected to attend has changed quite a good deal. Not present were names like Marcus Haislip and Dahntay Jones as they were replaced by others. I believe that Jamal Sampson and Hassan Adams were present as well but their names weren’t listed on the original team breakdown that I had.

So let’s talk about possible options for the Raptors and who stood out.

(Sidebar - It’s funny because before last year’s Jamario Moon breakthrough, the idea of “options” for Toronto from a camp like this was somewhat laughable. But as I mentioned Friday on the site and as well in the scrum with Jim Kelly yesterday, the only real difference between a lot of these guys at the camp and the ones who came in later in the day for pre-draft workouts, is that the camp guys are a few years removed from the draft limelight. However guys like Adams, Slay, White and Langford were all second round picks and only a few years ago it was their names that mock drafts were speculating about. Funny how things work.)

After talking with some folks in attendance and seeing the action myself, I’ve selected two guys from each team. These were players that either stood out in my mind, or who I was told had nice showings on Friday and earlier in the day Saturday before I arrived.

Black Team – Rod Benson and James White.

Benson missed a few cheapy lay-ups and is a hardly the second coming of Dwight Howard body-wise but he did stand out. He threw down a few nasty dunks, displayed some great intangibles in terms of setting screens, moving without the ball, and of course, getting rebounds. I was hoping to get a chance to chat with Rod but missed the boat so hopefully will grab him Sunday.

I only caught glimpses of James White today but Ryan McNeill of HoopsAddict.com told me that on Friday the former Cincy product showed off his athletic ability and stood out amongst the rest. I heard similar whispers from others concerning the 6-7 guard/forward. White is an interesting player as athletically he’s off the charts…the rest of his game just hadn’t caught up to him when he was drafted by the Pacers. He didn’t stick, and eventually wound up playing overseas last year. Interestingly, I spoke one-on-one with White on Saturday (which you can listen to using Windows Media Player by clicking the following link james-white-interview-free-agent-camp-08) and he informed me that the Pacers actually had him in for another look prior to his arrival for camp in Toronto.

The Dinos need both athletes and rebounders so I could see both of these guys finding seats at the end of Toronto’s bench next year. White in particular impressed me as contrary to reports that I had always heard concerning his surly disposition, he was a pleasure to speak with and seemed to have a much bigger perspective on the game than he did after college.

Besides White, I also got to speak with former Kansas standout Keith Langford. (You can check out the interview by clicking the following link and using Windows Media Player keith-langford-interview-free-agent-camp-08) Langford is one of the players I expect to see fighting to the finish for a roster spot due to his slashing abilities but from the sounds of things, the Raptors had him playing the 1 a lot in this camp so far. Langford is not really a 1, and he expressed to me the challenge he’s had in this camp to protect the rock from the smaller ball-hawks like Pooh Jeter and John Lucas Jr.

White Team – John Lucas Jr. and Dijon Thompson.

Not much of a surprise here in many ways as I expected both of these players to be near the top of the pile in terms of skill level. Thompson in particular was impressive scoring inside and out using terrific crossovers and getting great elevation on his jumper. Thompson just has a certain smoothness to his game and it’s great to see him healthy again.

Lucas is just a competitor. He did a good job distributing the ball and getting his teammates involved and as a bonus, made opponents pay for leaving him open on the perimeter. He shot the ball from long range extremely well, something that was a knock on him coming out of college. The other knock on him of course is has been his height. He’s listed at 5-11, but considering that I’m a shade under 5-10 and felt taller than him, I’m guessing he’s closer to 5-8 or 5-9. However in a third-stringer role for Toronto, Lucas might be a nice, cheap addition.

The other player on the White Team that apparently stood out was Tamar Slay. I didn’t get to see him much yesterday but of anyone in this camp, Slay should stand out. He’s had more than a cup of coffee with various NBA clubs and is a bit of a “do-it-all” type at 6-8. He can score, defend, and play the 2, 3 and 4. Slay probably just needs to find that right fit for him team-wise and then he’ll stick in the L. Will it be with the Raptors? Hard to say but we’ll hopefully get a better read on questions like this later today as Howland and I head back to camp.

On a final note, it sounds like the Raptors have been quite pleased with the level of play from the point guards present (Lucas and Jeter in particular) and some of the bigs (Sampson, Benson etc.) We should get a better feel for things later this morning and I fully expect to see two or three players from this camp get Summer League invites.

FRANCHISE

Workout Recap for June 20th - Hibbert and Greene

First off, apologies for the late post recapping Thursday’s workout session. I had wanted to get it up yesterday but between media stuff, recapping and previewing this weekend’s Raptors activities…oh…and my REAL job, it just didn’t happen.

However it was an invaluable experience and even without Batum being present, a good chance to talk to both Roy Hibbert and Donte Greene, and the always informative Raptors’ head draft honcho, Jim Kelly. (In fact, you can hear me asking Kelly a question at about the 4 minute mark of the Jim Kelly Interview at Raptors.com)

So first impressions from the workout?

Well, none of us media got to see any of the workouts this time but two things struck me right off the bat:

1) Roy Hibbert looks to be in great shape. Hibbert has always been viewed as sort of a wallowing throwback to the 90’s big man but this is hardly the case. He’s no Samuel Dalembert but up close he’s surprisingly slim, especially in the upper body. In fact I’ve now gone the opposite direction on him almost and if anything, I’m concerned that his slender sloping shoulders don’t have the ability to carry much more weight. However he’s a legit 7-2 and as Jim Kelly mentioned post-workouts, has an old-school type game in terms of smooth hookshots and drop steps from both sides of the floor. I got a chance to ask Hibbert some questions after the general media scrum and he’s been working extremely hard on his conditioning since Georgetown finished play. You can listen to the general scrum and my follow-up questions by clicking on this link and using Windows Media Player to replay the file: roy-hibbert-scrum-and-q-and-a.

2) Donte Greene is NOT 6-9. Michael Grange discussed this as well in his blog and he’s bang on; standing beside Leo Rautins and his son (there working on his shot), Greene looked to be about the same height. Maybe that puts him around 6-7 but 6-9 or higher? Forget it.

I think too that Greene has lost some luster in this draft. Yes, he might turn out to be a great player four years from now when the rest of his game rounds out but I’m now hoping Toronto passes on him even if he does fall to 17. I went back over some of his games last year with Syracuse (good ol’ Rogers PVR) and really, we’re talking here about a player who showed nothing defensively, took more 3’s than foul shots, had horrible shot selection, and had a tough time taking players off the dribble due to his ball handling deficiencies. He’s really just starting to learn the game and I just don’t see him being an impact player for Toronto through his first contract. To hear the media scrum with Greene, click on the following link and use Windows Media Player to play: donte-greene-scrum

As for Batum, it sounds like he was truly sick as reports are now coming out concerning a possible heart issue. Hopefully this turns out to be nothing but it’s a scary situation for someone trying to audition for his future in the league.

In addition to Batum’s absence, JaVale McGee, who was also at one point expected to attend, pulled out of the workout. This however was not due to any physical ailments as McGee has been pulling out of workouts from any team outside the lottery, reportedly at his Mother’s urging. This seems ludicrous considering he hardly seems like a lottery pick at this stage of the game. Oh Moms and the draft…

McGee for me has buyer beware written all over him and at this point looks like Patrick O’Bryant part II, a prospect with an NBA “upside,” who emerged on the draft scene simply because of a few solid performances near the end of his college career. In fact, this draft has a number of “bigs” who seem to be nothing more than “upside” and interestingly, both ESPN.com and Draftexpress.com have recently touched on the subject.

From Draftexpress.com, a larger scale view of prospects is given examining “win scores,” or econometric analysis to generate an approximation for individual player contributions towards Wins Produced. It’s a somewhat fascinating look at the draft and bigs like Michael Beasley, Kevin Love and Marreese Speights all tested out well using this statistical analysis. However others like McGee, and DeAndre Jordan didn’t fare so well. Interestingly, Joey Dorsey showed great promise under this analysis and Roy Hibbert turned out ok as well while at the very bottom of the barrell? Much hyped LSU Tiger Anthony Randolph.

ESPN.com’s John Hollinger’s analysis showed very similar results, especially in terms of Randolph’s future forecast in the NBA. Once again, Hibbert tested out well statistically while McGee and DeAndre Jordan were disappointing. In this forecast however Joey Dorsey didn’t fare well and Robin Lopez, someone rumoured to be rising on draft boards, was no stunner either.

What does this all mean for the Raptors?

Well for starters, maybe nothing as who’s to say how much statistical analysis Jim Kelly and co. take into account in these decisions (although I’m hoping to ask him about this at tomorrow’s workout.) However what Jim made clear yesterday was while the Raps were going to go with a big or a swingman at 17, they hadn’t decided who that player was at this phase. (You can hear the full scrum with Jim Kelly by clicking on the following link and using Windows Media Player: jim-kelly-from-hibbert-and-greene)

From our perspective here at the HQ, the recent draft discussion, our own video footage and these pieces of statistical information from ESPN.com and Draftexpress.com have caused us to rejuggle our top five prospects as well. Now, we’d like to see one of the following five picked next week, in the following order:

1) Chris Douglas-Roberts

2) Brandon Rush

3) Robin Lopez

4) Roy Hibbert

5) Alexis Ajinca

The more footage I see of Ajinca, and the more I read about him, the more I wonder if he wouldn’t be an interesting pick at 17. Rush and Lopez both might be gone before Toronto picks, it doesn’t sound like Toronto is taking too close a look at CDR, and unless Speights really tears the roof off in his workout tomorrow, who else besides Hibbert makes sense besides Ajinca? Alexis worked out very well for the Raptors and drew great reviews from numerous other teams as well. Plus, if Toronto drafted him they’d have two bigs with girls’ names, think of the comedy potential!

On a final note, I’m really looking forward to tomorrow’s workout as only Speights and Will Daniels will be featured. We’ll have previews of both up tomorrow as well as a look at the rest of the Free Agent camp roster (as reportedly a number of players were no-shows due to travel issues.)

FRANCHISE

Thursday June 19, 2008 - This year’s draft was looking a quiet for Raptors’ fans for a while but suddenly that’s all changed.

First a swarm of workouts landed in Toronto all at once, then we had this year’s version of the free agent camp, and now a number of newsworthy items have popped up concerning the Raps.

The big one off the top is the rumour of Toronto and Phoenix being in talks concerning a trade involving TJ Ford and Boris Diaw. There are a few versions of this deal but the one reported most often would see Toronto sending its 17th pick to Phoenix along with Ford in exchange for Diaw.

How do we feel here at the HQ about such a deal?

Well, Howland told me tonight that he likes the idea less and less but I would do it in a flash. In fact, back in an article from late April, I first put forth the trade option as something that made a lot of sense for both teams. No, Diaw is not a slashing wing like Maggette or a hard-nosed defender like Ron Artest, but wouldn’t you rather move Ford for Diaw than say Ford for simply an expiring contract like Malik Rose? I would.

On top of this, I think Diaw still has room to improve and could be a nice fit at the 3 alongside Parker and Bosh. He was underutilized last year in Phoenix and he’d get a new shot here in Toronto at reclaiming his 2006-07 form.

And really, Ford needs to go. Toronto can’t start training camp with both him and Jose and if dealing TJ is the bottom line this off-season, then Bryan Colangelo needs to take his best swing and perform some addition by subtraction.

In other point guard news, the Raptors today extended qualifying offers to both Jose Calderon and Carlos Delfino. Nothing too earth shattering about this as it’s standard fare for a team looking to retain first right of refusal on their own restricted free agents. Delfino’s offer is somewhat interesting however as it looks like Colangelo is not opposed to keeping him around for another season, especially if the price is right.

FRANCHISE

Thursday June 19, 2008 - Reports are out there that the player the Raps are coveting at this point is Robin Lopez. We have a full report on Lopez in the Workouts section. The problem Toronto has now is that the lesser of the Lopez twins is climbing higher and higher in mock drafts meaning he likely won’t be around at 17.

If these reports are true it will be interesting to see if the Raps brass has a change of heart given the workouts taking place at the ACC today and Friday. Who is to say that solid workouts by Hibbert or Speights won’t force a change of heart.

If Colangelo wants to move up in the draft how far could he get packaging Ford and 17? Could he land in the 8-12 range. If so it is possible that suddenly the other Lopez twin becomes available.

Another interesting rumour circulating is between the Cavs and the Warriors. On the block? Varajeo and pick 19 for Brandon Wright and a large trade exemption. Just throwing it out there but won’t it make some sense to see if the Cavs have an interest in TJ? What about Ford and 17 for Varajeo and 19 (plus filler). The Raps could then address the front-court need and take a flyer on one of the various swingmen available.

HOWLAND

June 17, 2008 Update

The Deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft came and went yesterday and may have some interesting repercussions on the Raptors.

First off, two notable first-round names have decided to return to school, Ty Lawson and Chase Budinger. With these two now removed from the first round equation, it potentially juggles the prospects available for Toronto when they pick at 17.

The Budinger situation is especially problematic as that takes yet another swingman out of the equation around the middle of the draft. Therefore the Brandon Rushes and Donte Greenes of this class, could potentially now be not only gone before the Raptors pick, but also be late lottery selections depending on future workouts.

On the other side of things, it’s interesting that Bill Walker has decided not to return to Kansas State. While the MRI on his injured knee that we discussed yesterday came back as only a slight tear, it has to put some doubts into clubs as to his long-term health. I’d still love to see Toronto take a shot at him if he fell into the second round, but as for 17, we’ve taken him off our wish list.

For a complete list of players who have withdrawn from the draft, check out Draftexpress.com’s breakdown here.

Also, for a breakdown of Toronto’s draft options check out the recently aired Raptors Draft Preview on NBA TV.

FRANCHISE

June 16, 2008 Update

Sad news for fans like myself of Bill Walker.

ESPN.com is reporting late tonight that the K State redshirt freshman injured his right knee in a workout in California over the weekend. He’ll apparently have an MRI today and will be under the gun as to whether to stick in the draft or not. He has until 5 PM Eastern today to make a decision.

It’s an extremely tough situation for Walker who already was looking like an early second round pick rather than a first round lock. Now, unless he has some sort of guarantee in place, which is doubtfull at this time, he may have no other option but to go back to school. Sans Beasley, Kansas State is not exactly looking like a powerhouse and if the team struggles, it might do more damager to Walker’s stock than good, even if he is the go-to guy next season.

The only positive angle on this story right now is that the injury is to his right knee and not his left, the one that caused him to redshirt his first year at Kansas.

From our perspective here at the HQ, we’ll probably take him off our “top 5 prospects” watch list for the Raps and hopefully he’ll be able to make a full recovery for next year’s draft.

FRANCHISE